Becoming a mix of sun and cloud late in the morning. 30 percent chance of showers early in the morning. Wind becoming southwest 20 km/h this evening then becoming northwest 20 gusting to 40 before morning. If we end up with one of these sorts of central Pacific El Niño events, or what the Japanese call an El Niño Modoki, the effects in Canadian weather are less certain.Detailed Forecast Forecast issued : 4:00 PM MDT Monday 16 October 2023 Date "And if we end up with a classic, powerful El Niño event like 2015–2016, you could say it's fairly certain we're going to have a dry and mild winter here in Canada. "Because right now, all of the big meteorological agencies in the world and all the models are saying we're aiming toward El Niño conditions, but they're using a prediction system that mixes different types of El Niño together," he said. The biggest challenge for forecasting in Canada is about what type of El Niño event this is going to be, Donner said. And within that period, the ENSO cycle has been either mainly neutral or with La Niñas. Of the top 10 global hottest years on record, nine have all occurred since 2014. It's important to note that the world is warming with or without El Niño's help. Experts say we must prepare for more climate-related disasters "So one other reason that people I think harness into El Niño is that typically, there's less snowfall, and a lot of people like snow, or they're interested in that."Īnalysis We are heading toward IPCC's 1.5 C threshold of warming, but all is not lost "There have been some events where … North America has been above–normal during some of the strong El Niño events," said NOAA's Gottschalck. El Niño accounts for 33 per cent to 38 per cent of the variance in the Atlantic basin, they said in a press conference. Other factors, such as African monsoons, could affect that forecast, however.ĭuring an El Niño, the annual temperature in Canada also tends to be milder. On Thursday, NOAA released their hurricane outlook and forecast a 40 per cent chance that the Atlantic hurricane season will be near-normal, good news for Atlantic Canada. While it doesn't usually affect Eastern Canada, it can reduce the number of hurricanes. Typically, El Niño affects Canada in the winter and spring, bringing milder temperatures, particularly in the northwest, west and Central Canada. "It's like moving where stones are in a stream: you move the stones, the water flow around those stones is going to change." What can we expect in Canada? "What I worry about with this is that, when we group all El Niño events together, we end up misleading people about what to expect in their part of the world," he said. (NASA Earth Observatory map by Joshua Stevens/Akiko Kayashi and Bill Patzert/NASA/JPL Ocean Surface Topography Team)Īnd this can be problematic, said Donner. This image shows the height of the Pacific Ocean rising as the warm waters of El Nino developed in 2015. Water expands as it warms, causing the surface of the ocean to rise. There were even bumper stickers that read, "Don't blame me! Blame El Niño!" Globally, more than 23,000 people died. Images of landslides and floods were splashed across television screens. That season, heavy rains drenched parts of California, resulting in major agricultural damage that totalled roughly $1 billion US and killed 19 people. Different types of El NiñosĮl Niño first came into the public consciousness in 1983, as it was the first major one in recent history that brought with it severe flooding and drought to various parts of the world. But it wasn't until 1997–1998 that the El Niño truly burst on the scene. Trying to determine the potential fallout in terms of extreme weather events in the ENSO cycle is especially difficult in the time of global warming. An all-time Canadian record-high temperature of 49.6 C was recorded in Lytton, B.C., which was practically wiped off the map during a particularly catastrophic wildfire season. Just look at 2021, when during the "cool" La Niña, Western Canada saw devastating heat waves that contributed to the deaths of roughly 600 people. "If we do end up with a strong El Niño event, if that same event happened in the 1800s, it simply wouldn't be as warm and the impacts wouldn't be as strong." "What's interesting about this, and I think it's so important to remember, is all of these events are getting warmer," said Simon Donner, climate scientist and professor at the University of British Columbia.
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